In the FCS Huddle: Sam Houston State not hurt by later recruiting
NCAA Football Betting Lines
01/21/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the rest of the Southland Conference had the luxury of devoting more time to high school recruits the last two months, everybody agrees they still are chasing Sam Houston State.
Just like they did in the 2011 regular season.
Recruiting dominates December and January for most FCS coaches, but a little something called the NCAA Division I playoffs got in Sam Houston State's way. Not that the national runner-up Bearkats minded.
"We've gotten a really good reception," Sam Houston State head coach Willie Fritz said about the recruiting season. The national signing period begins Wednesday, Feb. 1.
"We had the opportunity to play three weeks on national TV (in the playoffs) and a couple of those games we were the only (FCS) games on TV. It really helped our exposure. We primarily recruit the state of Texas. Even though we had a late start because we played for so long, we feel like we have an opportunity to have a great class."
Sam Houston State, in its second season under Fritz, won its first 14 games before losing to North Dakota State, 17-6, in the national championship game Jan. 7 in Frisco, Texas.
The Bearkats will be returning a veteran squad next season, featuring the likes of running back Timothy Flanders, wide receiver Richard Sincere, quarterback Brian Bell and safety Darnell Taylor.
With only about 12 players expected to comprise next season's senior class, the Bearkats' recruiting class will go 13 to 15 deep. The focus is on the offensive line, where three or four of the potential starters will be seniors. Five prospects already are verbally committed to the class.
"Everybody's heard of us," Fritz said. "They know about the playoff run, they know about being in the championship game. Most of the kids watched us in at least three or four ball games. We were on regional TV also three or four times this season (as well as the three playoff games on the ESPN Networks). There's a lot more recognition of the Sam Houston football brand out there."
While Fritz's coaching brethren in the Southland were thrilled to have the conference represented in the national title game - "I think it's huge for our conference, I think we're all going to benefit in recruiting from it," Central Arkansas coach Clint Conque said - they still have some catching up to do this offseason.
The Bearkats' closest game within conference play was a 21-point win over Central Arkansas, the runner-up, but a playoff team as well.
"Any time that they get those guys back playing at the level they're playing, there's no question, there's a gap that we all have to fill," said McNeese State head coach Matt Viator, whose program also is focusing on offensive linemen in its recruiting class.
"We'll see what happens; each year is a different year. We found that out here through the years. But certainly on paper, what they've done and if they can come back and play at a high level and the coaching staff stays intact, players stay intact, players stay healthy, the whole deal, they're going to be tough to deal with."
"I think the good thing is you kind of know what you have to stop and you know what you have to do," against Sam Houston State, said Stephen F. Austin head coach J.C. Harper, whose recruiting class is focused on defense, especially in the trenches and the secondary.
"That's what they give you. Defensively, they're going to give you man-free and get after you with pressure.
"Offensively, you have to be able to stop the run and, hopefully, you can hang in there when they play-action pass and try to big-play you. But I like the fact that we might be able to match up with our speed.
"Obviously, everybody is chasing them. They have (nearly) everybody back."
That Sam Houston State can no longer be a surprising team after it improved by eight wins from Fritz's first season in 2010 (a 6-5 mark) isn't lost on the Bearkats head coach.
He knows which program is wearing the bull's-eye in the Southland Conference.
"The big thing I talked about with our guys at the team meeting (on Tuesday) is that for us to be considered one of the top FCS programs in the nation we've got to back that year up with another year," Fritz said. "That's what we're shooting for. It was a great run, it was great experience for us, but the last thing we want to be is a flash in the pan. We understand it's going to take more hard work than what we did last year because we aren't going to sneak up on everybody. We're going to get everybody's best shot."
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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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